By Joe Browne

Record: 77-85

The Miami Marlins won 84 games last year. That number surprised me along with many other baseball fans. They made the playoffs for the first time in a full season since 2003, a year in which they won the World Series. The Fish were quickly swept 2-0 by the Phillies in the wild card series. Across those two games the team only scored two runs. Their offense went dead silent when the lights were the brightest. Kim Ng was a historic hire following the 2020 season and she did a fine job with this group. Ng resigned after owner Bruce Sherman wanted to bring in a president that would push her to second in command. That president ended up being Peter Bendix who did not do much in his first offseason at the helm in South Beach. The projected lineup features all returners but one from last year’s 84 win campaign. The new face is Tim Anderson who will look to resurrect himself after an absolutely abysmal 2023 season in which he posted a measly 60 OPS+. Anderson will slot into the top of the order and play shortstop which was a position of need for Miami the offseason. The Marlins saw their best power source depart for San Francisco in Jorge Soler. His loss will certainly be felt, this lineup lacks power. Trade deadline acquisitions last year Jake Burger and Josh Bell combined for 56 homers in 2023. The rest of this projected opening day lineup combined only hit 72 homers. Burger and Bell were both great for the Marlins down the stretch and played a large role in their eventual playoff berth. However, I project that they will not be able to maintain those numbers over a full season’s workload in Miami. Another reason why this team will regress is its defense. Outside of Jazz Chisholm Jr. in center and the catching duo of Fortes and Bethancourt, there is subpar defense all around the diamond. The aforementioned Tim Anderson is brutal at shortstop, a premier defensive position. His counterpart on the left side of the infield, Jake Burger at third, is also a bad defender. While Luis Arraez is exceptional at the plate he is not in the field at second base. Overall, the infield defense rounds out to be one of the worst in baseball. The pitching staff will be without its top arm this season, 2022 National League Cy Young Sandy Alcantara. Jesus Luzardo was great last year and he will deservedly take the mound on Opening Day for Miami. Youngster Eury Perez was also great despite his inning limit holding him back from his max potential in 2023. The rest of the rotation is rounded out by Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers. Pair this with a solid bullpen and overall this team does have a respectable staff. For me, it comes down to the lack of power in this lineup without Soler, the bad defense and the unsustainable record in one run games last year. The Marlins were 33-14 in ball games decided by one run last year, that number is unsustainable in 2024. Do not be surprised if this team does take a step back this year following a somewhat promising 2023.

MVP: Luis Arraez

With the season ending injury to Alcantara, it is tough to see anyone else but Arraez being this clubs best player. Batting average is not the end all be all like it once was, but the fact that Arraez flirted with a .400 clip for a significant chunk of the season is remarkable. He will not provide power, honestly it would be impressive if he can reach ten homers again this season but he has the best bat to ball skill in baseball. In 2023 Arraez had a remarkable 5.5% strikeout rate paired with a 7.8% whiff rate. Both those numbers were in the 100th percentile. Arraez is the best pure hitter in baseball and the face of this franchise. Here’s to hoping Miami does not trade him this season like rumors suggest they could.

Cy Young: Jesus Luzardo

Luzardo came over to Miami in the deal that sent Starling Marte to Oakland in July 2021. Initially, he struggled in Miami but has really found his footing in the last two years with the fish. Last year he started a full season’s workload of 32 starts and struckout 208 batters over 178.2 innings. The southpaw has a great fastball with an average velocity of 96.7 MPH and a run value at an exceptional 15. The offspeed is not as great as the heater but he does use his slider and changeup almost equally. Those pitches aided him in generating a nice 31.4% whiff rate in 2023. Now, with Sandy’s absence he will have the role of the ace on a team that is a playoff hopeful.

Breakout: Edward Cabrera

You have probably heard of Edward Cabrera before, he was among the long list of young arms the Marlins had coming through their system within the last few years. Last year, he had a mediocre 4.24 ERA, dig a little deeper and you will find he also had a 3.79 xERA. Pair those numbers with an exceptional xBA at .199 and the bad luck faced by Cabrera is evident. The one key behind this breakout pick is if he can find a way to limit his fee passes handed out. A whopping 6.0 BB9 and and abysmal 15.2% BB rate in 2023 can not be repeated if he will see improvement in 2024. His offspeed run value was elite at a positive 9 runs. This was fueled by his primary changeup which is by far Cabrera’s best pitch. It aids in creating a surplus of ground balls to help Cabrera get outs. The tools are there for this breakout to come to fruition in 2024, it is just a matter of if Cabrera can throw strikes consistently. 

ROTY: Max Meyer

Max Meyer was the 3rd overall pick in the 2020 draft out of Minnesota by the Marlins. Injury derailed his 2023 season because he required Tommy John surgery. Now, Meyer is back and fighting for a roster spot in Miami. While Meyer does not project to start the year in the rotation, an injury or poor performance from one of Miami’s other starters is inevitable. This will open the door for Meyer to pitch in the show in 2024. The 24 year old righty will be ready when his chance arrives to pitch with the big league club. Meyer has an elite slider that scouts grade out as a 70 grade pitch. He pairs that pitch with his fastball and changeup. So far Meyer has appeared in one game this spring for the Marlins striking out two in two innings against the Yankees on February 29th. The time is now for Meyer to finally pitch big league innings and become a staple in the Marlins rotation for years to come. 

Sources:

Baseball Reference

Baseball Savant

Fangraphs

MLB Pipeline